zsmalley4070
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Is there any hope for the castle rock cut before Memorial Day?
Castle rock cut
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That is a tough prediction right now. If you can wait 3 weeks we should have a better idea of runoff strength and timing.
If I had to guess right now I would say no. But there are a lot of variables leading up to how the lake actually rises that have not been put into play yet. Remind me here in a couple of weeks and there should be more available to make the correct Guesstimate.
If I had to guess right now I would say no. But there are a lot of variables leading up to how the lake actually rises that have not been put into play yet. Remind me here in a couple of weeks and there should be more available to make the correct Guesstimate.
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zsmalley4070
Member
Okay cool. Some friends and I are coming up the 15th of May
JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
I would say it's highly unlikely, but as Wayne says, there's still a lot of variables in play. You'd need a 15-foot rise by then to open the Cut. The closest parallels to this year are 2005, 2011 and 2014, where the lake bottomed out around April 10 in each year, and saw a big rise--53 feet in 2005, 51 feet in 2011, and 36 feet in 2014. The peak date in 2005 was July 12; 2011 was July 30; and in 2014 was July 10. But in each case, most of the rise happened in June. By May 15, it had only risen 14 feet in 2005, 6 feet in 2011, and 8 feet in 2014. (And 2005 was the second biggest spring rise on record, so don't count on that this time.) I'm guessing the pattern will be similar this year--unless it warms up very quickly between now and May 1 or so, the Cut probably won't be open...
birdsnest
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Where is your group going? We are also heading out then. Really want the cut open for a shorter trip to mm 12.
John P Funk
Escalante-Class Member
I've been watching the "28 reservoirs above Lake Powell" data for a while now and the % full has gone from 66.35% on April 1 to 67.32% on the 10th, with daily average increase in fill ranging from about .03% on April 2nd to .20% on April 10. I'm not sure at what level we'll start seeing releases from these upstream reservoirs(if they do plan releases), but I would supposed it would be in the high 80% range. At the current rate of fill it would be more than two months. There is a significant area of the watershed that doesn't go into these 28 reservoirs, but it is interesting to watch.
birdsnest
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Don't like that the cut probably won't be open for our mid May trip but love that Flaming gorge is only 12 1/2 feet from full pond and Lake Navajo has come up nearly 2 feet in 3 days. Blue Mesa is getting it too. Looking better all the time. Looking at the individual river flow charts is encouraging as well.
Ejespady35
Well-Known Member
Navajo has gone up 14.04 feet since Feb 27th... but they are not releasing anything out of it... The Animas river in Durango Yesterday was running great!
zsmalley4070
Member
We usually cruise up to the same area
Steve Moore
Well-Known Member
Came back from Rifle Sunday. The Colorado is probably 3 foot higher than the last time I was through there
zsmalley4070
Member
I’m not familiar with where you’re talking about... what does this mean?
zsmalley4070
Member
sweet!!!!!I think he means "the big snow melt is bigly headed to Powell!"
Trix
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
Hey Z, I'm killing time on my phone, watching NCIS, and getting WW notices. Back to your original question about the cut at Memorial Day, about May 25. The April USBR 24 Month Study issued around April 1 shows May elevation at 3591. I'm pretty sure that means May 31. The cut is functional at 3583. It appears to me to be a solid bet that the cut will be open. April's storms will only improve the USBR forecast issued in May.
No offense to JKR's thoughtful analysis, but I'm betting he's off a few feet.
Doh, I now see you are going May 15. Today's level is 3569. We need about 8 inches per day to get to Cut minimum of 3580 by May 15. With this week's warm up, I think that can be expected. Watch the LP Water Data Base. We will see big daily jumps.
No offense to JKR's thoughtful analysis, but I'm betting he's off a few feet.
Doh, I now see you are going May 15. Today's level is 3569. We need about 8 inches per day to get to Cut minimum of 3580 by May 15. With this week's warm up, I think that can be expected. Watch the LP Water Data Base. We will see big daily jumps.
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zsmalley4070
Member
JFRCalifornia
Keeper of San Juan Secrets
I hope you're right, and the snowpack obviously looks promising. But from a pure numbers standpoint, we'd need to add about a net 1.0 MAF to the lake to get it to 3583. That translates to about 500,000 cfs in total net flow. So if we have 20 days until May 15, that's a net 25,000 cfs per day. If they continue to release water at the current rate of 12,500 cfs/day, we need to average 37,500 cfs inflow every day until May 15 to get to 3583 by then (April 24 inflow is about 20,000 cfs). Maybe, but I still think that's doubtful. It's rare we hit that kind of inflow volume by May 15, and almost never by May 1... The last time we hit 37,500 cfs inflow on May 1 was in 1987, and before that only in the highest flow years of the early 1980s. We did hit those kind of numbers by May 10 in 1997 and '98, and came close in 2017...
...So if we made it to 3583 by May 15, we'd be in nearly uncharted territory. I hope that's the case!
I've spent some hours researching historical records of snowpack and rise. There are so many variables, but I would be super DUPER (very technical term) surprised if the cut was open my May 15. Almost impossible based on previous data. I would expect the lake to be rising a foot a day by the last 8-10 days or so of May though, and I made a slightly optimistic prediction of 3588' by May 31 (give or take 18") in my other thread... which means a slight chance of it just being open Memorial Day weekend. We'll see, but good luck either way!
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