Castle Rock Cut-Through Easter Weekend

[CHRIS MCBETH]

Are there any statistical water analysis genius’ here willing to provide a prediction if the cut-through will be passable Easter weekend?

Much is at stake because if we stay at the wahweap Lake Powell resort and it’s too shallow, we’re doomed to spend the better part of each day traversing the dreaded Maytag.

What do you think?

 

[JFRCalifornia]

There is a 100% chance of it being open unless the dam breaks. On February 20, the lake was at 3603.56. It would have to drop about 20 feet to close the Cut, which is safely open more or less above 3583. Right now the lake is dropping about 1 foot every 10 days, so in a month it might be as low as 3600. On average, the lake hits its low point on April 1, sometimes as early as mid-February, sometimes as late as mid-May, but by far almost always between March 15 and April 15. Last year the "bottom" point was on April 10. Easter this year is April 12. Assuming the current rate of drop through April 15, the lake might drop 5 more feet, to about 3598. It won't get much lower than that before rebounding.

Make your plans and rest easy.

 

[wayne gustaveson]

Chris - it will be open.

 

[Rivergoer]

It’s almost inconceivable just how much water we got last year. Here are a couple of shots of Castle Rock Cut from the same vantage point (looking back toward Wahweap several hundred yards in on the Warm Creek side).

Castle Rock Cut May 14, 2019, Elevation 3,577 (Inflow nearly 30,000 cfs, Outflow about 12,000 cfs)
This picture from the top is deceiving, those are large dozer tracks at the bottom...i.e. very deep.


February 21, 2020 Elevation 3,603 (Inflow 6,000 cfs Outflow 12,000 cfs)
Just passed through Friday, still VERY deep even after several months of negative inflow vs outflow. Entering/exiting Wahweap end are some shallows at the mouth on the North side but they are well-marked.

 

[Pegasus]

I love before and after photos! That's a great one - you can clearly see on the far right near the horizon the white sloping rock the level now vs empty. Nice, Doug

 

[CHRIS MCBETH]

There is a 100% chance of it being open unless the dam breaks. On February 20, the lake was at 3603.56. It would have to drop about 20 feet to close the Cut, which is safely open more or less above 3583. Right now the lake is dropping about 1 foot every 10 days, so in a month it might be as low as 3600. On average, the lake hits its low point on April 1, sometimes as early as mid-February, sometimes as late as mid-May, but by far almost always between March 15 and April 15. Last year the "bottom" point was on April 10. Easter this year is April 12. Assuming the current rate of drop through April 15, the lake might drop 5 more feet, to about 3598. It won't get much lower than that before rebounding.

Make your plans and rest easy.

Very relieved to hear. Someone posted they passed through the cut sediment had reduced its depth to as little as 10 feet... but sounds like they were just off center!!

thanks everyone!