A quick check

[POk3s]

Yes…more water talk and yes…I know you guys can check the weather yourself

Simply, this seems to be all I do is check my little water graphs and check storms

But…doing a little checking you can see that we really are at the breaking point when you compare our most frequent “bad water years”.

This year is the black line and we’re currently sitting at 94% for this date.

2022 is the dark green line.

2021 is the red line.

2018 is the pink line and really “baseline”



When you see the lines, you can see we’re right in the mix for a “sub par” water year

When you compare the black line with those from 2024 and 2020, you can see that we have some catching up to do…some “catching up” that has simply not happened in the last 10 years.



With 21 days until median peak, it’s crunch time!

AWS Plot

nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov

 

[Dorado]

We’ve done well the past few weeks. There’s a couple more storms in the pipeline over the next 5-6 days or so. But it looks like the pattern changes to above average temperatures and dry in the long term. Not a horrible water year, but bit below average. The almost total lack of precipitation in January pretty much assured a relatively weak water year…

 

[POk3s]

We’ve done well the past few weeks. There’s a couple more storms in the pipeline over the next 5-6 days or so. But it looks like the pattern changes to above average temperatures and dry in the long term. Not a horrible water year, but bit below average. The almost total lack of precipitation in January pretty much assured a relatively weak water year…

We have yes, and locally our water year is great. The southern end of the Colorado river drainage just severely lacked moisture this year, causing this particular graph to stay below the 100% threshold. Should be a good water year for flaming gorge. We’ll see how much gets sent down stream!

 

[ndscott50]

The April to July inflow forecast has been between 4.2 and 4.7 million acre feet for the last month. Currently near the top of that range at 4.693. A couple moderate storms forecast for the next couple weeks. If the current inflow forecast holds we would end the water year around 3576 with a peak of 3585. Only two feet short of last years peak which would not be bad based on a relatively weak snow year.

If I was going to put a range on it, the high side is likely not much more than what is shown above. Maybe 3588 if they totally miss on the current dry April forecast and we got a wet May as well. Low side risk is higher as there are multiple examples over the last decade where the April 1 forecast ended up being over a million acre feet greater than the actual. If we avoid the full doom prediction and go with an inflow of 4 million acre feet, 700k short of the current forecast, we would end the water year at 3569 with a peak elevation of 3578.

 

[POk3s]

The April to July inflow forecast has been between 4.2 and 4.7 million acre feet for the last month. Currently near the top of that range at 4.693. A couple moderate storms forecast for the next couple weeks. If the current inflow forecast holds we would end the water year around 3576 with a peak of 3585. Only two feet short of last years peak which would not be bad based on a relatively weak snow year.

If I was going to put a range on it, the high side is likely not much more than what is shown above. Maybe 3588 if they totally miss on the current dry April forecast and we got a wet May as well. Low side risk is higher as there are multiple examples over the last decade where the April 1 forecast ended up being over a million acre feet greater than the actual. If we avoid the full doom prediction and go with an inflow of 4 million acre feet, 700k short of the current forecast, we would end the water year at 3569 with a peak elevation of 3578.

I think that is “okay” with all of us. We’ll see what happens in the next few weeks.

 

[Waterchaser]

Grand Mesa getting good snow today/tonight.

 

[POk3s]

That storm bumped the line up to 97%, as of this morning, but a pretty dry week in the forecast, unless I’m missing something

 

[flowerbug]

This is one of those years where I'm hopeful but have no idea.

A few storms will kick it up and get some moisture into the ground for helping runoff. How far beyond that we go with a wet spring is just too unknown to me.

Some nice shots south over the next six to ten weeks.

We need a little above average to offset the recent past trends. How can I arrange that in my rain dance? If I go up north I can scare things further south...

 

[flowerbug]

I'm glad today to see green on the radar over CO, but I can never tell for sure what is going on with actual precipitation without checking the news reports after the fact.

 

[Camp]

After a dry, warm week, it's good to see some precip in the forecast. Especially good news for southern Colorado (Wolf Creek), but also central. Copper Mtn is already over 300".

 

[dhobbs]

Yes the next 10days look really good for precipitation.

 

[FishnFly]

Just read this on Open Snow. Seems like it’s not gonna be a great runoff this year or even average for that matter. Fingers crossed that the storms next week and into April bump things up. Too much warm in between the cold and snowy this winter.

I look at Mt. Blue Sky (FKA Mt. Evans) from my front porch. It’s looking pretty bare and rocky already.

 

[viking842000]

I think it is best to just stop posting about it... It is bad ! Wolf Creek basin is 65% and further down the drainage towards Navajo it sits at 45%... UGLY

 

[Squirrel]

I’m 13 miles due East of (it will always be Mt. Evans) in Brook Forest and there’s almost no snow in the timber. Hope to get to the lake in the next couple weeks. Sq

 

[Chillindacove#21]

I’m about 15 miles due East of (it will always be Mt. Evans) in Brook Forest and there’s almost no snow in the timber. Hope to get to the lake in the next couple weeks. Sq

Yes, (it will always be Mt. Evans)

 

[FishnFly]

I’m 13 miles due East of (it will always be Mt. Evans) in Brook Forest and there’s almost no snow in the timber. Hope to get to the lake in the next couple weeks. Sq

Squirrel you and I are neighbors. I’m up on Lynx Lair. The snow is gone up here and our road is summertime dusty dry.
Still hoping for a stormy April. I’m grateful for the water we will get this year. But always slightly stressed for the year after a year like this.

 

[Squirrel]

I’m on Cedar Road up in Brook Forest Estates, in the Clear Creek County section. Sq

 

[POk3s]

Just read this on Open Snow. Seems like it’s not gonna be a great runoff this year or even average for that matter. Fingers crossed that the storms next week and into April bump things up. Too much warm in between the cold and snowy this winter.

I look at Mt. Blue Sky (FKA Mt. Evans) from my front porch. It’s looking pretty bare and rocky already.

Yep. Sitting at 86% this morning. We had nearly 70 degrees here for a couple days so it sure sent some water down early.

 

[RobertGosselin]

Yep. Sitting at 86% this morning. We had nearly 70 degrees here for a couple days so it sure sent some water down early.

The Lake Powell Water database has the snowpack at 80% of normal today. The peak snowpack occurred a week ago on Mar 22 and is headed downward. Some years show double peaks so it could go up again but that is not likely given the forecast. I expect the upper basin will be filling all their reservoirs again so there will probably be very little runoff for Lake Powell. I was already resigned to going through the Maytag Straits given that my weeks are late May/early June and mid September.

 

[ndscott50]

As of April 1st, the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center predicts 4.4 million acre feet of inflow between today (4/1) and July 31st. That would be 69% of average. So, not a great year.


If I run rough numbers on that we would end the water year (9/30) at 3574. Peak would be around 3582. So about 5 feet under last years peak level. Some storms forecast over the next few days and then dry with a big warm up next week. Hopefully we get a wet enough spring to at least maintain this forecast.